FORM $105.01 — the picks-and-shovels name of the quantum basket (cryogenic probe-test platforms for QC labs plus the semiconductor test business) fell 7.4% Friday to close near the session low. This is the second big down-leg since the Jun 30 cycle high at $160.27. Unlike the pure-plays, FORM is profitable, mid-cap, and this selloff is testing not the annual anchor but a well-defined July base. Earnings Oct 28 is the dominant upcoming event — company-confirmed. Line in the sand: hold the $104.62 session low and the July pivot at $83.45 becomes the backstop; break $104.62 before earnings and the measured target is $83.45.

Technical structure

Weekly: FORM is in a different regime from the pure-plays. The structure is a stair-step uptrend from October 2025's $41.90 base (A) → June 2026 cycle high at $160.27 (B) — a 283% advance over eight months. The July crash to $83.45 (C) washed out leverage, then price built a right-shoulder recovery to $150.65 on Sep 30 (D). Friday's close at $105.01 (potential E) is the fifth consecutive down-session into a measured retest of the C-wave low. Range projection D−(B−C) targets $73.83 on a hard break — well below the July low — but the overlapping $104.62/$95.41/$83.45 cluster offers three distinct bid shelves above that.

Daily: the chart shows a clean sell-signal from the Sep 30/Oct 2 double top at $150+ followed by a six-session grind lower. Volume on the Oct 5 reversal (13.9M shares — 10× normal) was institutional distribution, and every bounce since has failed under $142. The $112.47 Aug 10 pivot broke cleanly on Oct 14. $104.62 is now the fulcrum — holding it keeps the broader multi-month uptrend intact; breaking it opens a direct line of sight back to $95.41 and the July $83.45 cycle low.

Edson Gould speed lines from the Jul $83 low to the Sep $150 high rolled bearish in early October, which coincides with the current selloff. Price is already testing the base of the trend channel.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $882.9M (+18.4% YoY) — only name in the basket with real revenue
• Gross margin: 42.1%
• Operating income TTM: +$104.8M (positive — the only profitable name)
• Cash + ST investments: $349.0M (as of 2026-06-27)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$106.8M (positive — self-funding)
• Runway: n/a (profitable)
• Diluted shares: 78.1M
• Source: latest 10-Q filed for the quarter ending 2026-06-27 (SEC EDGAR)

FORM is the only name in this group where the technical setup should also be weighed against normalized earnings, not a cash runway. Fiscal Q3 guidance was lifted on Jul 29 to EPS $0.77-$0.95 on $260-280M revenue (MarketBeat).

Valuation

• Market cap: $105.01 × 78.1M = $8.20B
• P/Sales TTM: 9.29× — the only normal multiple in the basket
• EV/Sales: ~8.90× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S (6-ticker basket): ~177× (basket dominated by zero-revenue names; median is not a fair comp for FORM)
• Position vs peers: far below — FORM trades on earnings multiples; the pure-plays trade on cash and option-value

Catalysts

• Next earnings: Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 1:25 PM Pacific — company-confirmed (Finviz)
• Q3 raised guidance: EPS $0.77-$0.95, revenue $260-280M (MarketBeat)
• Northland estimates FY2026 EPS ~$3.90 (MarketBeat)
• Industry: cryogenic test demand from QC labs plus foundry-cycle test for logic/HBM — FORM's revenue correlates with both AI capex and quantum research spending

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.