FORM $101.70 — bullish above $110.23, bearish below $101.33

Line in the sand. FormFactor closed −7.8% at $101.70 Friday, breaking the $110.23 prior-close pivot and settling right at the session low ($101.33). Line in the sand: $101.33 (session) and, below it, the $82.34 C-wave low from 2026-07-29. Reclaim $110.23 to restore access to the $139.80 D-wave high; lose $101.33 and the tape opens toward the mid-summer $82 zone.

Technical structure

FORM is the only ticker in the basket with a clean multi-quarter uptrend that hasn't been reversed. The base at $27.81 on 2025-09-02 marks the A-wave low; the cycle high B-wave printed at $160.27 on 2026-06-30 (intraday), a +476% run in ten months driven by the AI-probe-card cycle plus the cryogenic-quantum tailwind (Flatiron dilution refrigerator launched March 2026, IQ3000 cryogenic prober, Boulder cryogenic test service lab).

Wave C rolled to $82.34 intraday on 2026-07-29 (close $83.45) — a −49% retrace of the massive A→B leg. The D-wave bounce topped at $139.80 on 2026-08-17, a shallow retracement (only 43% of B→C) that suggests the bulls didn't fully recover the June channel. Friday's −7.8% cash on the daily bar re-tests that thesis.

Measured-move projection: C + 1.0×(B − A) = 82.34 + (160.27 − 27.81) = 214.80. That $214.80 is the primary long-term target if FORM reclaims $110.23 and grinds back above $139.80; anything less and the tape ranges $82–$140 while the AI-cycle narrative digests.

Speed lines from A ($27.81, 2025-09-02) through B ($160.27, 2026-06-30) put the 2/3 speed line at ~$110 and the 1/3 line at ~$140 — the two lines now bracket the exact D-wave high and session pivot. That's a rare alignment where every tool points to the same $110/$140 confluence.

Fundamentals

FORM is the only profitable name in the basket — a real business, not an option-on-a-technology.

• Revenue TTM: $882.9M (+18.4% YoY)
• Gross margin: 42.1%
• Operating income TTM: +$104.8M (positive)
• Cash + ST investments: $349.0M (as of 2026-06-27)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$106.8M (positive)
• Runway: N/A — cash-generative
• Diluted shares: 78.1M
• Source: latest 10-Q (accession 0001039399-26-000033)

Valuation

• Market cap: $101.70 × 78.1M = $7.94B
• P/Sales TTM: 9.0×
• EV/Sales: ~8.6× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S (5-ticker basket ex-INFQ): ~391× — FORM is a picks-and-shovels comparable, not a pure-play, and this row is why the median is not the right lens
• Position vs peers: ~40× cheaper than the pure-play median, but the fair comp is semi-cap peers where FORM's ~9× P/S with +18% growth is roughly full — the "quantum optionality" narrative is what pulls it toward the higher-P/S end of semis rather than the low end

Catalysts

• Q2 2026 print: record sales $258.2M, net income $56.2M, Q3 guide ~$270M revenue / ~$0.75 diluted EPS — source Simply Wall St FORM overview
• Cryogenic-quantum product line: Flatiron benchtop dilution refrigerator (~30 mK, March 2026 launch), IQ3000 cryogenic prober, qubit prescreening cryostats, Boulder cryogenic test lab — source Motley Fool quantum picks-and-shovels
• Next earnings: ~late October 2026 (Q3 2026), per historical cadence
• +270% total return over trailing 52 weeks as of 2026-08-24

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.