FORM $106.20 — bullish above $113.84, bearish below $98.80; profitable, guided Q3 above street

Line in the sand

FORM is the only profitable name in the quantum basket — the "picks-and-shovels" cryogenic wafer-test play. $83.45 (7/29/26) was the wave-C low, printed on the Q2 earnings report (record $258M revenue, strong Q3 guide $260–$280M) — the reaction was risk-off despite the beat. $113.84 (Fri session high) is the immediate topside; through there the tape works back toward the pre-collapse $128 pivot. Below $98.80 (Jul-27 close), the 83.45 low retests and the 73.20 January base becomes the downside magnet.

Technical structure

The cycle here is much larger than the pure-play quantum names — a full multi-quarter bull structure: A = $27.62 (8/6/25) → B = $160.27 (6/30/26) → C = $83.45 (7/29/26). Wave-B was a 480% advance over 11 months — powered by AI-adjacent semiconductor test demand plus the quantum optionality — and wave-C erased 58% of that in a compressed 4-week collapse anchored around the Q2 earnings print.

The 2-day move from Wed's $83.45 low to Fri's $106.20 close (+27%) is a textbook Wicked Stocks "V-reversal off a scheduled news event" — the earnings print flushed weak hands and the reaction was one-day only. The 1/3 retrace of the B–C leg sits at $109.06 and the 1/2 retrace at $121.86 — Friday's high ($113.84) has already cleared the 1/3 marker, which is the first mechanical confirmation of the reversal.

Speed lines drawn from 8/6/25 low → 6/30/26 high have both been broken by the wave-C collapse — the primary uptrend is technically damaged. However, the bottom rail of the accelerated channel (drawn from the Jan lows through Jul lows) sits under the current price and provided the pin bar. Weekly parabolic-SAR flip would come near $122 — that's the wave-C-invalidation level.

The measured-move D-wave target C + (B–A) = $216.10 is technically what the ABCD math says but is unrealistic in a single sequence — treat it as multi-quarter potential given the underlying fundamentals. The more actionable target is the 1/2 retrace at $121.86 → wave-B retest at $160.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $796.0M (+6.7% YoY) — real revenue, real growth
• Gross margin: 38.3%
• Operating income TTM: +$50.2M ← positive
• Cash + ST investments: $306.2M (as of 2026-03-28)
• Quarterly operating cash flow: +$45.0M (positive)
• Runway: not applicable — company generates cash
• Diluted shares: 78.0M
• Q2 2026 (just reported 7/29): record $258M revenue; Q3 guide $260–$280M (vs $246M consensus)
• Source: latest 10-Q, period ending 2026-03-28 (SEC filing)

Valuation

• Market cap: $106.20 × 77.95M = $8.28B
• P/Sales TTM: 10.4× — an order of magnitude below the pure-play quantum basket
• EV/Sales: ~10.0× cash-adjusted
• Peer median P/S (6-ticker basket): ~185×
• Position vs peers: far below median — FORM is priced as a semiconductor equipment stock, not a quantum-narrative name. The quantum optionality is essentially free at this multiple. When rotation into cash-flow-positive semi names accelerates, FORM benefits without needing quantum revenue to hit.

Catalysts

• Q2 2026 already reported: July 29, 2026 — record $258M revenue, Q3 guide $260–$280M above consensus of $246.2M, EPS guide $0.77–$0.95 vs consensus $0.60 (source).
• Next earnings: late October 2026 (Q3 print, exact date not yet announced — check IR).
• Semi-cycle read — FORM is a leveraged read on the leading-edge foundry cycle (TSMC/Samsung/Intel wafer-test spend) plus a lower-beta read on quantum-lab cryogenic test demand. Q3 guide above street is the strongest single fundamental signal in the basket this week.
• Sector rotation — if this Sunday's quantum earnings cluster (IONQ 8/5, RGTI/QBTS 8/6, QUBT 8/10, INFQ 8/12) triggers renewed quantum interest, FORM captures optionality without the multiple compression risk.

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.