Line in the sand. FormFactor closed Friday at $104.04, 40 cents above the session low of $103.65. This is the deepest pullback since the March rally, and price is now sitting on the shelf that was resistance in April. Bulls need $117.42 back (the weekly pivot) to argue this is a healthy consolidation; bears want a break of $103.65 to open $92.60 as the next real bid.

Technical structure — weekly. FORM's picks-and-shovels story printed one of the cleanest uptrends of 2025-26. A = $26.15 gap-down low (week of 2025-07-25, post-Q2 miss), B = $100.01 first major rally high (Feb '26), C = $82.35 corrective low (Mar '26), D = $160.27 cycle high (Jun 30, '26). That D-wave was a 60× off the A-low in under a year. The July mark-down has cut the cycle high in half — 160 → 104 in four weeks — but the weekly speed lines drawn from A to D remain intact so long as $92 holds on a weekly close. Volume on the mark-down is heavy (10.98M shares on the June 26 gap-down single-handedly signalled distribution) but the tape is still above the March breakout.

Daily structure. The daily read is A = $90.70 (Mar 30), B = $160.27 (Jun 30), C = $103.65 (Jul 24). That's a 58.7% retrace of the March-June leg — deeper than 50% but still above the March low. Both daily speed lines are broken. Friday held $103.65 on the tick and reversed the intraday move for a small green bar into the close. If $103.65 holds Monday, expect a mean-revert bounce toward $110-113 (the July 21-23 range). If it breaks, the $92.60 March support becomes an active magnet.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $796.0M (+6.7% YoY) — real business, largest in the basket
• Gross margin: 38.3%
• Operating income TTM: +$50.2M (profitable!)
• Cash + ST investments: $306.2M (as of 2026-03-28)
• Quarterly cash from operations: +$45.0M (positive — no burn)
• Runway: N/A (self-funding)
• Diluted shares: 78.0M
• Source: latest 10-Q filed for period ending 2026-03-28

Valuation

• Market cap: $104.04 × 78.0M = $8.11B
• P/Sales TTM: 10.2×
• EV/Sales: ~9.8× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S: 243× (basket of quantum pure-plays)
• Position vs peers: dramatically below — FORM is the only cash-generating company in the basket, so a direct P/S comparison isn't apples-to-apples. Relative to its own history, ~10× sales is still a rich multiple that assumes ongoing HBM4 + quantum probe growth. The July decline suggests the market is starting to test whether that assumption holds.

Catalysts

• Q2 2026 guidance already issued: revenue $240M ± $5M, non-GAAP EPS $0.61 ± $0.04, per Simply Wall St summary and Kavout
• Flatiron Dilution Refrigerator launched March 2026 — brings FormFactor into "Desktop Quantum" testing, competing directly with Bluefors for cryogenic system sales, per FinancialContent
• IQ3000 probe station (4K platform) drives the quantum-computing R&D probe business at scale, per FormFactor product page
• Motley Fool coverage: FORM as the "secret weapon" quantum play — this is the thesis narrative behind the March-June run

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.