FORM $118.38 — bullish above $131.67, bearish below $99.77

Line in the sand

FormFactor closed the week strong at $118.38, up 6.15% Friday, printing a $118.67 intraday high off a $99.77 recent base. Above sits $131.67 (Aug 13 close) and $139.80 (Aug 17 swing high); reclaiming that pair opens a re-test of the $160.27 cycle top. Below, the line is $104.82 (Sep 16 pivot) then $99.77 — losing the latter breaks the recovery structure and puts $82.34 (Jul 29 cycle low) back on the table.

Technical structure

FORM is a completely different animal from the pure-play quantum names: it's a profitable mid-cap advanced-probe-card maker whose cryogenic test business is direct picks-and-shovels exposure to the QC labs. A cycle high prints at $160.27 intraday on Jun 30, 2026 (close $159.93) — the culmination of a September-to-June rally that took FORM from $34 to $160 (+371%). The July flush produced B at $82.34 on Jul 29, 2026, a 49% haircut in three weeks. The recovery C printed at $139.80 intraday on Aug 17, 2026 (close $138.16). Speed lines from B to C give up the 1/3 line late-August; the 2/3 line ceded through the Sep 1 flush to $95.41. The daily now shows a mini bd off Sep 14's $102.54 low, with Friday's $118.38 close a clean bullish reclaim. AB=CD equal-legs projects toward wave-B retest at $82.34 as the downside checkpoint; upside continuation targets the $139.80/$156.66 pivot pair. The tape is squarely mid-range, with rising short-term structure.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $882.9M (+18.4% YoY)
• Gross margin: 42.1%
• Operating income TTM: +$104.8M (profitable — the only profitable name in the basket)
• Cash + ST investments: $349.0M (as of 2026-06-27)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$106.8M (cash-generative)
• Runway: N/A (self-funding)
• Diluted shares: 78.1M
• Source: latest 10-Q filed for period ending 2026-06-27 — SEC EDGAR

Valuation

• Market cap: $118.38 × 78.1M = $9.25B
• P/Sales TTM: 10.5× ($9,247M ÷ $882.9M)
• EV/Sales: ~10.1× (cash-adjusted for $349M)
• Peer median P/S (5-ticker pure-play basket): ~40× / (6-ticker basket including FORM): ~30×
• Position vs peers: FORM screens far cheaper than any pure-play quantum name on trailing revenue. Actually generates cash, actually earns money, actually pays for itself. The premium is deserved by fundamentals, not by narrative.

Catalysts

• Next earnings: quarterly cadence points to late October 2026 (Q3 print) based on 10-Q filed for June-quarter period — see SEC EDGAR filings.
• Latest 10-Q accession: 0001039399-26-000033 — SEC EDGAR filing page.
• Industry: FORM benefits from any capex uptick at the QC vendors (IONQ, RGTI, IBM, Google) and from advanced-node semi test demand; watch NVDA / AMD probe-card commentary and any DOE/DARPA quantum lab spend announcements.

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.