FORM $123.59 — bullish above $130, bearish below $115

Line in the sand. Thursday's Jul 2 crash printed a $120.63 session low tagging exactly the $113–$121 support pocket that held through all of June (Jun 1 $115.07, Jun 5 $116.70, Jun 9 $113.30). Below $115 and this becomes a full trend break with room to the March $82.35 gap; hold $115–$120 and the tape re-attempts the $147.13 Jul 1 pivot on the way back to the $160.27 cycle high.

Technical structure. FORM is the profitable "picks-and-shovels" leg of the basket — the wave count is different from the pure-plays because there's no dip-and-rip cycle to speak of. The primary structure is one massive uptrend from B = $26.15 on Jul 31, 2025 (a Q2 '25 earnings gap-down) to A = $160.27 on Jun 30, 2026 — an eight-fold rip that carried through every major dip: Feb $92 → Mar $82.35 (Mar 6 low), then April $130 → Apr 30 gap-down base $129, then May 12 outside-day $125.72 low. D is forming right now with $120.63 as the working low. The Jul 31, 2025 → Jun 30, 2026 speed line (drawn from the pre-earnings gap low to the cycle high) tags in the $130 zone today, so the Jul 2 close $123.59 sits below the primary uptrend for the first time since October. Daily: the sequence Jun 15 $152.60 → Jun 30 $159.93 close → Jul 1 $147.13 → Jul 2 $120.63 low is the biggest 2-day drawdown of the entire run — 22% off Wed close, 16% intraday Thursday, on 2.1M shares vs 1.4M daily average. Session Jul 2 (O 147.13 / H 147.13 / L 120.63 / C 123.59) opened at the high, closed near the low — classic exhaustion / de-risk into the Jul 29 earnings print.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $796.0M (+6.7% YoY)
• Gross margin: 38.3%
• Operating income TTM: +$50.2M (only profitable name in the group)
• Cash + ST investments: $306.2M (as of 2026-03-28)
• Quarterly cash flow from ops: +$45.0M (positive)
• Runway: n/a (self-funding)
• Diluted shares: 77.95M
• Source: latest 10-Q, filing 0001039399-26-000023

Valuation

• Market cap: $123.59 × 77.95M = $9.63B
• P/Sales TTM: 12.1×
• EV/Sales: ~11.7× (net of $306M cash)
• Peer median P/S (6-ticker basket, pure-plays): ~337× (QBTS)
• Position vs peers: far below the pure-plays — FORM is priced like a semi-cap equipment name, not a story quantum. That's the pitch: real revenue, real GAAP profit, exposure to QC lab infrastructure via cryogenic probe stations (a picks-and-shovels play).

Catalysts

• Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026 — MarketBeat / earnings call summaries
• Q1 '26 (Apr 29): record revenue $226.1M beating the $220–230M guide, EPS $0.56 up from $0.46 Q4 '25 — Q1 earnings-call transcript
• Q2 '26 guide (given at Q1): revenue $240M, non-GAAP EPS $0.61 ±$0.04
• The Jul 2 −16% drop had no earnings pre-announcement in the news wire — reads as pre-earnings de-risk after a 354% one-year rally, not a fundamental miss

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.