Line in the Sand

FORM closed Friday at $129.69, extending its three-week recovery from the Sep-1 low at $94.99. The tape is now sitting just under session resistance at $133.06 (Friday's high) — a close through it opens the door to the August pivot high at $138.16, and beyond that the June/April cycle-highs cluster near $155–160. Support to defend: $118.49 (Sep 21 daily low) is the shelf, break of which reopens the recent lower-band retest zone into $102.94 and eventually $94.99. This is the highest-quality trend in the basket — profitable, positive operating cash flow, and back at multi-week highs.

Technical Structure

Weekly view: FORM ran from the $34.80 base in late September 2025 to a cycle high of $160.27 on June 30, 2026 — a 4.6× move in nine months, extraordinary for a mid-cap semi. The July flush took the tape to $82.34 (Jul 29) — a 49% wave-A drawdown from the top on the earnings-guide reset. Wave-C rallied to $139.80 (Aug 17), wave-D low was $94.99 (Sep 1). Speed lines from A → B stayed a valid support cluster through the September base, and last week's advance carried price back to the 2/3 line — the technical inflection point.

Daily view: A=$160.27 → B=$82.34 → C=$139.80 → D=$94.99. Measured-move D + (C−B) = $152.45, essentially where June's swing highs sit. What matters this week: (1) can FORM clear $133.06 and stage a run at $138.16, and (2) does volume expand or contract at those levels. Friday's volume was thin (~897K shares vs. 20-day median ~1.2M) — a low-volume close near session highs is constructive but needs follow-through.

Fundamentals

FORM is the only profitable, cash-generative name in the basket:

• Revenue TTM: $882.9M (+18.4% YoY)
• Gross margin: 42.1%
• Operating income TTM: +$104.8M (positive — no other basket ticker prints this)
• Cash + ST investments: $349.0M (as of 2026-06-27)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$106.8M (positive)
• Runway: N/A — self-funding
• Diluted shares: 78.1M (also the lowest float in the basket)
• Source: latest 10-Q filed 2026-08 (SEC EDGAR)

Q2 2026 results: EPS $0.72 vs. $0.12 YoY, revenue $258.2M (+32% YoY). H1 2026 net income $76.6M vs. $15.5M in H1 2025. Q3-26 company guide: $270M ± $10M revenue, 52.0% ± 1.5% GAAP gross margin, EPS $0.75 ± $0.09. (FormFactor 10-Q, Q2 26 8-K)

Valuation

• Market cap: $129.69 × 78.12M = $10.13B
• P/Sales TTM: 10.13B / 882.86M = ~11.5×
• EV/Sales: ~$9.78B EV (cash-adjusted) / 882.86M = ~11.1×
• Peer median P/S (basket): ~250× (FORM 11.5×, IONQ 84×, RGTI 418×, QBTS 507×)
• Position vs peers: cheapest by a wide margin — FORM screens as a growth-at-a-reasonable-price name inside a basket of speculative pure-plays. The tradeoff: it's not a pure quantum bet. Cryogenic test is a small but growing fraction of the mix, and the majority of the topline is driven by the broader semi test-and-measurement cycle.

Catalysts

• Next earnings: Q3 2026 report late October 2026 (fiscal Q3 ended Sep 26; management guided $270M ± $10M).
• Cryogenic/quantum: HPD IQ3000 probe station — 4-kelvin platform used to characterize superconducting qubits, single-photon detectors, and quantum structures. FORM is the picks-and-shovels beneficiary of every player in this basket needing test infrastructure. (Simply Wall St)
• Industry read-through: FORM did not gap on the Sep 22 IONQ error-correction news — the stock trades on its own semi-cycle catalysts (HBM ramp, advanced packaging), with quantum as a call-option overlay.

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.