FormFactor closed Friday at $131.60 (−0.06%) on 820K shares — flat on the session but preserving a five-day rally from $112.47 (Aug 10 close). This is the picks-and-shovels play in the basket: FORM sells cryogenic probe stations and wafer-level test tools to superconducting and spin-based quantum labs, plus RF/DRAM/logic probe cards to the broader semi industry. The line in the sand for next week is the $135.64 breakout ceiling (Aug 13 high) above and the $121.07 shelf (Aug 11 close) below. Break of $135.64 opens $143.58 (78.6% retrace) → $160.27 (cycle high retest); loss of $121.07 puts $105.31 and the $97.28 wave-B shelf back in play.

Technical structure

FORM is the only profitable name in the basket, and its wave structure looks different because of it: no B-low bottom-fishing rally, just a clean A-high → B-low → recovery off an earnings-driven waterfall. Wave A printed the annual high at $160.27 on Jun 30, 2026 — the culmination of a 5× rally from the $30 August 2025 base, driven by AI probe-card demand and cryogenic test tailwinds. Wave B was the post-earnings unwind: $82.34 on Jul 29, 2026 — despite a Q2 beat, the market reacted to a Q3 guide it viewed as conservative, halving the stock in 22 sessions.

Since B, price has traced a violent V-recovery: base at $82-98 for four sessions, then straight-line rally through $105 → $115 → $125 → $131.60 with a single day of consolidation. Volume has trended lower during the rally (820K today vs 2.5M on the July 29 low), which is textbook for a wave-2 rebound but not yet confirmation of a new sustained uptrend. FORM has now retraced ~63% of the A→B swing.

Fibonacci projection off the A→B swing:

• 61.8% retrace: $130.50 (just crossed)
• 78.6% retrace: $143.58 (next primary target)
• 100% retest of A: $160.27 (secondary target — this is where the earnings-driven supply is stacked)

Above $135.64 the 78.6% retrace becomes the operative target; below $121.07 the recovery stalls and $105.31 is the pivot. If the July $82.34 low holds on any deeper pullback, this becomes a strong wave-B and the setup improves considerably.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $882.9M (+18.4% YoY)
• Gross margin: 42.1%
• Operating income TTM: +$104.8M — the only profitable name in the basket
• Cash + ST investments: $349.0M (as of 2026-06-27)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$106.8M — positive, not a burn
• Runway: n/a (profitable)
• Diluted shares: 78.1M
• Source: latest 10-Q filed for fiscal Q2 2026 (period ending Jun 27, 2026)

Valuation

• Market cap: $131.60 × 78.1M = $10.28B
• P/Sales TTM: 11.6×
• EV/Sales: ~11.3× (cash-adjusted)
• P/E (TTM operating): ~98× (before tax adjustments)
• Peer median P/S (5 pure-play quantum names in basket): ~90×
• Position vs peers: materially cheaper — FORM trades at 1/8th the sales multiple of the average pure-play quantum name, generates real cash, and has direct read-through to the same secular tailwind. This is the fundamental case for the ticker as the "least speculative" quantum bet in the basket

Catalysts

• Q2 2026 earnings reported Jul 29, 2026 — revenue $258.2M vs $244.8M est. (+31.9% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $0.82 vs $0.62 est. (+32% beat); stock initially popped 17% AH before selling off on Q3 guide — Chartmill
• Q3 2026 guide: revenue $270M ± $10M (implies +25% YoY at midpoint)
• Cryogenic probe stations — direct sell into superconducting and spin-based QC labs (competes with Bluefors, Oxford Instruments for adjacent DR platforms) — Motley Fool
• AI probe card expansion — record HBM and advanced-node test demand adds a second growth vector orthogonal to quantum — Simply Wall St
• Silicon photonics and co-packaged optics driving Systems segment demand alongside quantum
• Next earnings: ~late October 2026 (Q3 2026)

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.