FORM $124.59 — bullish above $112, bearish below $90

Line in the sand

FormFactor — the picks-and-shovels play on cryogenic test infrastructure — closed −4.3% Friday at $124.59 after Thursday's session-high test of $131.68. The May 19 C-wave low at $112.31 is the dominant pivot: hold it and the structure remains a healthy 30% pullback off the $159.09 cycle high (a normal correction in a strong uptrend). Lose $112 and the next stop is $90 — the Mar 30 swing low and a 43% retrace of the entire $26→$159 multi-quarter advance. Above $140, the $159 cycle high is back in play and the $180 measured target opens.

Technical structure

Weekly: A=$90.70 (Mar 30, 2026 swing low), B=$159.09 (Apr 24, 2026 cycle high), C=$112.31 (May 19, 2026 C-pullback low). The AB leg was a 75% advance in 25 sessions — a parabolic move driven by Q1 2026 earnings (record $226M revenue, +32% YoY, on Apr 29). C retraced 68% of that advance — a deep correction but not yet a trend break. The longer-term frame from the Jul 31, 2025 cycle low at $26.08 (an earnings-driven gap-down) through the Apr cycle high at $159 shows the full 6× advance still intact above $90.

Daily ABCD: A=$90.70 (Mar 30), B=$159.09 (Apr 24), C=$112.31 (May 19), D=$139.92 (May 26 retest). The D-wave bounce stalled below the May 6 $151.50 level — the structurally important "kiss-and-rejection" zone. C+(B−A) projects to $180.70 if the May 26 D-wave high is invalidated by a clean break of $140. The May 11 single-day blow-off candle from $156→$132 marked the start of the correction and remains heavy overhead supply.

This is the only name in the quantum basket where the technical structure interacts meaningfully with fundamentals — earnings, not sentiment, drives FORM. The Q1 record on Apr 29 fueled the $159 print; Q2 guide ($240M ±$5M) is the next inflection.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $796.0M (+6.7% YoY)
• Gross margin: 38.3%
• Operating income TTM: +$50.2M (profitable — only name in basket)
• Cash + ST investments: $306.2M (as of 2026-03-28)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$45.0M (positive)
• Runway: N/A — profitable, self-funding
• Diluted shares: 77.95M
• Source: latest 10-Q for Q1 2026 (SEC EDGAR)

Valuation

• Market cap: $124.59 × 77.95M = $9.71B
• P/Sales TTM: 12.2× — orders-of-magnitude below the pure-plays
• EV/Sales: ~11.8× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S (pure-play basket: IONQ 202, RGTI 882, QBTS 452, QUBT 3,960): ~452× — FORM trades like a normal semi-cap, not a quantum pure-play
• Position vs peers: BELOW peer median by ~37× — FORM is the only quantum-adjacent name whose valuation can be defended by revenue and earnings. Cryogenic test (dilution refrigerators, sub-100mK cryostats, wafer probers) is essential infrastructure for every superconducting-qubit lab, including QBTS and RGTI.

Catalysts

• Next earnings: ~late July 2026 (Q2 2026 release) — source TipRanks earnings calendar
• Recent: Q1 2026 record revenue $226.1M (+32% YoY) reported Apr 29, 2026, with Q2 guide of $240M ±$5M — source Motley Fool transcript and SEC 8-K
• Quantum exposure: Cryogenic probe systems + sub-10mK dilution refrigerators are used by every major superconducting QC lab — source FormFactor product page
• Industry events: SEMICON West (July) and IEEE Quantum Week (September) typically drive cryogenic-tool announcements

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.