FORM closed Friday at $117.39 on 651K shares, up 1.9%, sitting inside the range between the Aug 4 D-wave high at $121.58 and the Aug 3 low at $100.75. This is the picks-and-shovels ticker in the basket — profitable mid-cap semi-test vendor with a growing cryogenic quantum business — so the wave structure looks very different from the pure-play blowoff cycles: less amplitude, more coherent trend, an actual earnings beat instead of a bookings pipe dream.

Line in the sand

$121.58 is the D-wave high and the bull trigger — a break above puts the ABCD projection at $129.31 in play (which is essentially cycle equilibrium at $121.31). Above $129 the June 15 pivot at $152.60 becomes reachable and beyond that the annual cycle high at $160.27 (Jun 30). Downside: $105.31 (Jul 20 low) is the immediate defense; loss of it drops price toward the $97.28 Jul 17 low and then to the C-wave floor at $82.34.

Technical structure

FORM's chart tells the story of a full 12-month move: cycle base $27.98 in August 2025, then a straight-line trend that accelerated through Q1 2026 (breakout above $70 in mid-January, above $100 in early April) and blowoff to the annual cycle high at $160.27 on June 30 — a 5.7× gain in ten months. From that peak, price bled 49% into July 29's $82.34 low as risk-off flow hit the semi space. The last two weeks have been a sharp D-wave recovery: $82.34 → $121.58 in six sessions, retracing 48% of the drawdown on rising volume.

Wave count from the recent cluster: A = $113.30 (2026-06-09 intraday low, the last swing low before the June ramp), B = $160.27 (2026-06-30 cycle high), C = $82.34 (2026-07-29). Current D-wave: $82.34 → $121.58. That gives an ABCD measured move of D = 82.34 + (160.27 − 113.30) = $129.31, essentially at the cycle equilibrium — meaningful because a completed D-wave lands price at the midpoint of the entire range.

Speed lines from the June rally (origin $113.30 → extreme $160.27) sit at approximately $145 (1/3) and $129 (2/3) when extended into August. The 2/3 line coincides with the D-target — so $129 is a double-confluence zone. The channel from the June 30 top through July 29 bottom, extended forward, puts channel resistance near $130 and channel support near $92 in the current week. Price is testing the channel top now.

The volume signature matters: Jul 29's C-wave low was made on 2.5M shares (a capitulation-scale print for a stock that averages ~1M/day), the Aug 4 D-high on 2.1M shares. Distribution during the sell-off, accumulation on the recovery — the tape is behaving like a genuine bottom, not a dead-cat bounce.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $882.9M (+18.4% YoY)
• Gross margin: 42.1%
• Operating income TTM: +$104.8M (only profitable name in the basket)
• Cash + ST investments: $349.0M (as of 2026-06-27)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$106.8M (positive)
• Runway: N/A — company generates cash
• Diluted shares: 78.1M
• Source: latest 10-Q filed for period ending 2026-06-27, SEC filings

FORM is the only name in this basket with GAAP operating income and positive cash generation. Q2 print (July 29): revenue $258.2M (+31.9% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $0.82 vs. $0.62 consensus — a 32% beat.

Valuation

• Market cap: $117.39 × 78.1M = $9.17B
• P/Sales TTM: 10.4×
• EV/Sales: ~10.0× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S (5-ticker basket ex-INFQ): 450.4×
• Position vs peers: far below — FORM anchors the low end of the basket by a factor of 40× vs. the pure-play median. That gap is the point: this is a real semi-test business trading on revenue, not a hardware moonshot trading on ambition; the quantum exposure is the call-option premium layered on top

Catalysts

• Q2 2026 earnings: reported July 29 (after close) — revenue $258.2M vs. $244.8M consensus (+5.5%), non-GAAP EPS $0.82 vs. $0.62 (+32%), shares +17% next session (ChartMill, StockTitan)
• Recent: Systems segment strength cited on cryogenic quantum-test tools; management called out silicon photonics and co-packaged optics as growth drivers
• Industry: pure-play beneficiary of every superconducting and spin-based quantum roadmap through the wafer-level cryogenic test flow (FormFactor product page)

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.