FORM Quantum Research — June 21, 2026
FORM $149.55 — bullish above $154.77, bearish below $146.32
Line in the sand. FormFactor closed at $149.55 Friday, tucked just under the $154.77 Jun-16 high. Bulls need a daily close above $154.77 to extend the up-trend toward the $159.09 B-wave high and a probable retest of $175-$180; bears need a daily close under $146.32 to expose the $139.21 mid-week pivot and the deeper $125.50 May-28 swing.
Technical structure. FORM's 52-week sequence is one of the cleanest in this basket. A-wave low at $26.08 (Jul 31, 2025 — earnings-gap low). From there, FORM ran in a textbook Edson Gould speed-line trend up to the B-wave cycle high at $159.09 (Apr 24, 2026) — a six-fold move in nine months. The C-wave correction printed $112.31 on May 19, holding well above the 50% retrace ($92.59). The D-wave run took us back to $152.90 on Jun 15. Above $159 — the B high — the next ABCD target is D+0.382×(B−A) = $203.71 over time, with D+0.5×(B−C) = $176.30 as the nearer intermediate. Below the structural up-trend: $112.31 is the must-hold. Loss of that level breaks the entire post-July 2025 expansion.
Fundamentals
- Revenue TTM: $796.0M (+6.7% YoY)
- Gross margin: 38.3%
- Operating income TTM: +$50.2M (profitable — the lone profit story in this basket)
- Cash + ST investments: $306.2M (as of 2026-03-28)
- Quarterly cash from ops: +$45.0M (positive)
- Runway: n/a (positive operating cash flow)
- Diluted shares: 78.0M
- Source: latest 10-Q reporting as of 2026-03-28
Valuation
- Market cap: $149.55 × 78.0M = $11.66B
- P/Sales TTM: 14.7×
- EV/Sales: ~14.3× (cash-adjusted)
- Peer median P/S (6-ticker basket): ~370×
- Position vs peers: well below median — FORM is the only name in the basket priced as a real business; it trades like a high-multiple semicap, not a pre-revenue option
Catalysts
- Next earnings: ~Late Jul / Early Aug 2026 (Q2). Q1 2026 reported Apr 29: revenue $226.1M (+32% YoY all-time-high), Non-GAAP EPS $0.56, Q2 guide $240M ±$5M — source Q1 PR via GlobeNewswire
- Cryo product: Flatiron™ benchtop dilution refrigerator launched Mar 11, 2026 — directly targets quantum-device characterization workflows — source StockTitan PR
- Mix shift: HBM probe-card demand driving record revenue, legacy systems softening — earnings transcript Investing.com
Key Level Map
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| $176.30 | Wave projection D+0.5×(B−C) | Next intermediate target above B high |
| $203.71 | Wave projection D+0.382×(B−A) | Longer-term ABCD target |
| $159.09 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | B-wave cycle high Apr 24 |
| $154.77 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | Jun 16 high — pivot above |
| $149.55 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Friday spot Jun 18 |
| $146.32 | Session containment (★) | Jun 18 session low |
| $112.31 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | C-wave low May 19 |
| $26.08 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | A-wave cycle low Jul 31, 2025 |
Not financial advice. Analysis only.
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