FORM $117.52 — bullish above $128.99 (May 22 close reclaim), bearish below $104.02 (Jul 7 low, opens Mar 3 pivot $92).

Line in the sand

$104.02 was Monday's session low (Jul 7). Loses that on a daily close and the correction extends toward the Mar 5-Mar 20 pivot cluster $84-$92, then $71 (Feb 2 close). Reclaims $128.99 (May 22 close) and $132.02 (May 12 gap) and the tape re-opens toward the $152.60 Jun 15 pivot and eventually the $160.27 Jun 30 cycle high. Note: this is a different setup than the pure-play quantum names — FORM's pullback is off an all-time-high on a profitable business with real earnings.

Technical structure

Weekly wave count on the year: A at $27.50 (Aug 20 cycle low), B at $107.04 (Feb 25 first major push), C at $84.13 (Mar 5 mid-run pullback), D at $160.27 (Jun 30 cycle high). The A→D 483% move includes the CHIPS-Act-adjacent HBM4 AI test cycle plus the quantum cryogenic-testing narrative. The C→D up-speed-line from Mar 5 → Jun 30 was violated on Jul 2 (the $120.63 low intraday), and the Jul 7 low $104.02 broke back into pre-D-wave range.

Daily 126-day: The A-B-C down from D=$160.27 → $104.02 is a 35% pullback. Two-day gap-down sequence Jul 1 → Jul 2 ($147.13 open → $123.59 close) marked capitulation, with volume the highest since the Apr 27 distribution day. Bounce off $104.02 on Jul 7 → recovery to $117.52 by Jul 10 is a countertrend rally into overhead supply. The MA-cluster around $132 (May 12 gap top) is the trigger for bulls; without it, the bounce is technical only.

Bullish tell: sustained daily close above $128.99 with above-average volume neutralizes the ABCD-down. Bearish continuation: any close under $104.02 opens $96.99 (Mar 31 close) → $92.22 (Mar 20 close) → potentially the $84 shelf.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $796.0M (+6.7% YoY)
• Gross margin: 38.3%
• Operating income TTM: +$50.2M (positive — the only profitable name in the basket)
• Cash + ST investments: $306.2M (as of 2026-03-28)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$45.0M (positive)
• Runway: n/a — cash-flow positive
• Diluted shares: 78.0M
• Source: 10-Q for Q1 2026 (SEC EDGAR)

Valuation

• Market cap: $117.52 × 78.0M = $9.16B
• P/Sales TTM: 11.5×
• EV/Sales: ~11.1× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S (5-ticker pure-play basket): materially >100×
• Position vs peers: dramatically below peer P/S because FORM is a real semiconductor test equipment business — quantum cryogenic systems are a growth wedge on top of the HBM4 / AI test-cycle core. The multi-hundred-x peer P/S values only look normal against QUBT / RGTI / QBTS

Catalysts

• Next earnings: FORM typically reports Q2 results in late July / early August; watch the IR page for the confirmed date — source
• Q1 2026 recap: record revenue and EPS, driven by HBM/AI probe-card demand — source
• Quantum wedge — March 2026: launched Flatiron Dilution Refrigerator for "desktop quantum" mK-temp qubit testing; HPD IQ3000 4K probe station shipping into quantum labs — source
• Revenue mix: Probe Cards $699.6M / Systems $140.1M — Systems segment houses the quantum cryogenic products — source

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.