FORM closed Friday at $149.15, up 0.5% on 2.04M shares. Open $150.32, high $151.18, low $145.89 — an inside session near all-time-high territory. The stock has rallied 81% off the July 29 low in two months and is now consolidating within 7% of the June 30 all-time high at $160.27. Of the six names in the quantum basket, FORM is the only one trading at the top end of its 52-week range.

Line in the sand

Above $152.60 (June 15 peak) a decisive break opens the $160.27 all-time high and the measured move at $172.65. Above $160.27, the only resistance left is a round-number push to $170–175. Below $140.00 (weekly containment), the structure flips to a lower-high at $152 and opens $130.97 (September 28 session low), then $115 (August–September range mid), and ultimately $94.99 (the September 1 D-wave low that defines the entire recovery leg).

Technical structure

Weekly ABCD: A at $160.27 (June 30, 2026 all-time high), B at $82.34 (July 29, 2026 — a 49% drawdown post-earnings), C at $139.80 (August 17, 2026 recovery high), and D at $94.99 (September 1, 2026). From D the stock has rallied steadily to $150.65 (September 30), near full retrace of the entire A-to-B drop. The 1/3 and 2/3 Edson Gould speed lines from D→C are both now below price — a classic "trend intact" signal.

Measured move D + (C−B) = $172.65. That is the primary upside target, roughly 15% above spot and well above the current ATH. The sequence that gets there: a weekly close above $152.60 confirms, a weekly close above $160.27 commits, and then the measured move completes. The invalidation is a weekly close below $140.00 — that would print a lower high at $150.65 against the ATH and shift the pattern to distribution.

Daily action: the September 30 breakout bar closed $149.31 on 2.3M shares (above the 1.1M daily average), with four follow-through sessions in tight range. Volume compression after a trend bar is normally bullish — it says the stock has shaken out the overhead supply and is building for a continuation. The $145.89 Friday low is the first intraday pivot.

Note the June 26 anomaly bar (10.98M volume, high $141.74, low $129.03, closed $130.74) — that was a single-session liquidation event, likely tied to intraday options expiry. It is informative as a session-low support marker now, nothing more.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $882.9M (+18.4% YoY)
• Gross margin: 42.1%
• Operating income TTM: +$104.8M (profitable)
• Cash + ST investments: $349M (as of 2026-06-27)
• Quarterly operating cash flow: +$106.8M (positive)
• Runway: N/A (profitable)
• Diluted shares: 78.1M
• Source: latest 10-Q filed covering Q2 2026 (SEC filing)

FORM is the picks-and-shovels anchor of the basket — profitable, cash-generative, 42% gross margin, and primary cryogenic test for every major quantum lab plus HBM/HBM4/CPO demand from the AI-memory build-out. Q2 2026 revenue was $258.2M (+31.9% YoY, +14.2% QoQ) and Q3 guidance is $260–$280M with EPS $0.77–$0.95 (MarketScreener). The company earns real money while the pure-plays bleed.

Valuation

• Market cap: $149.15 × 78.1M = $11.65B
• P/Sales TTM: 13.2×
• EV/Sales: ~12.8× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S (6-ticker basket): ~232× (quantum pure-plays only, excluding FORM)
• Position vs peers: dramatically below peer median — FORM trades at ~1/18th the P/S of the pure-play average

This is the only name in the basket where the valuation is anchored to profits, not stories. The flip side: FORM's 13× P/S is still rich for a semiconductor equipment name (median semi-cap P/S ~5–7×). The premium is earned by the AI-memory and quantum optionality.

Catalysts

• Next earnings: October 28, 2026 (Q3 2026, after market close) — MarketScreener
• Q3 2026 guidance: revenue $260–$280M, adjusted EPS $0.77–$0.95
• Recent Q2 2026: $258.2M revenue (+14.2% QoQ, +31.9% YoY) — Q2 10-Q
• Business drivers: HBM/HBM4 memory probe cards, co-packaged optics, cryogenic test for QC labs — company press

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.