FORM $139.67 — the picks-and-shovels name in the quantum basket just completed a −7.6% four-day pullback from the fresh cycle high of $151.18, but closed Friday with a 1.9% green bar on 813K shares (below average). The chart is behaving like a healthy breakout re-test, not a top. The thing to understand about FORM: it is the only profitable company on this watchlist, which fundamentally changes how the technical setup should be traded.

Line in the sand

Bulls defend $128.77 (Aug 12 close) — a two-tap pivot and the mid-point of the two-month base. Below that, $121.07 and $115.95 are the next tiered supports down to the $100 round. Above, reclaim of $148.44 (Oct 1 close) opens a direct run at the $160.27 cycle high and the measured-move projection at $195.28.

Technical structure

FORM is in a different place from the pure-plays — it broke out of a decade-long $30–$70 range in Jan 2026 on the first cryogenic-probe-card orders tied to QC lab buildouts, and the Oct 2025 Q3 report (reported Oct 29–30 2025, +$3 after-hours gap) was the first catalyst. From there: A = $47.33 (11/21/25) pre-breakout pivot. B = $160.27 (6/30/26) cycle high — the parabolic end of the first-leg move. C = $82.34 (7/29/26) cycle pullback low — a −48% drawdown that bottomed almost exactly where the Jan 2026 breakout gap closed. D = $151.18 (10/2/26) recovery high — a re-test of the cycle high that fell just short.

Measured-move projection off D+(B−A) = $264.12 is the extended bullish target over the next cycle, though the more practical near-term objective is a daily close above the $160.27 cycle high — the completion signal for the full round-trip. ABCD downside off C−B+C = $4.41 is obviously theoretical; the practical downside box is $82.34 (prior July low), which would be a full give-back of the September rally.

Speed lines from the July low are still intact — the 1/3 line sits around $125 and the 2/3 line around $142. Price is pinned on the 2/3 line, which is exactly where you'd expect a healthy re-test. Volume on the Oct 5 doji (13.9M, 10× average) was options expiration-related and does not count as distribution.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $882.9M (+18.4% YoY)
• Gross margin: 42.1%
• Operating income TTM: +$104.8M (profitable!)
• Cash + ST investments: $349.0M (as of 2026-06-27)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$106.8M
• Runway: n/a (profitable + positive FCF)
• Diluted shares: 78.1M
• Source: latest 10-Q filed Q2 2026 (SEC EDGAR)

This is the entire bull thesis in one line: FORM makes money every quarter. It is the only name on this list where the balance sheet is net-cash-generative. 42% gross margins, 18% revenue growth, $107M quarterly operating cash flow — this is a real semiconductor-equipment business with a growing quantum-cryogenic kicker.

Valuation

• Market cap: $139.67 × 78.1M = $10.91B
• P/Sales TTM: 12.4×
• EV/Sales: ~12.0× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S (IONQ/RGTI/QBTS/QUBT basket): 388×
• Position vs peers: FORM trades at ~3% of the pure-play multiple on P/S because its revenue is real and its earnings are positive. The multiple expanded from 2.5× in early 2025 to 12× today on the quantum optionality — rich for a probe-card business, cheap for a QC-adjacent pick-and-shovel.

A disciplined take: FORM is the only name on this list where fair-value math is possible. 12× sales on an 18%-grower with 42% gross margins is not demanding by semi-equipment standards (ASML trades at 10×, LRCX at 8×). The multiple will hold as long as the quantum-cryogenic order book keeps growing.

Catalysts

• Next earnings: Q3 2026 report around Oct 29–30, 2026 — see FormFactor IR and Nasdaq calendar. This is the single most important near-term catalyst — the Oct 29, 2025 report was the launch pad for the entire 2026 breakout.
• Recent industry: FORM's cryogenic probe-card business sells into exactly the companies on this watchlist (IONQ, RGTI, Quantinuum, PsiQuantum). Watch for commentary on quantum-lab bookings as a percentage of total — in Q2 2026 it was still a single-digit percent, but growing.
• Earnings calendar context: Nasdaq FORM calendar.

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.