FormFactor cratered −12.11% to $130.74 on 11.0M shares (vs typical 1–2M) — a clean rejection of the $157.24 retest and the most decisive distribution bar since the April peak. The "picks-and-shovels" quantum proxy is now staring at a potential double-top against $159.09.

Line in the sand. $129.03 (Fri session low) is the immediate pivot — also the post-gap shelf from June 11–13. Hold it and FORM remains in a wide $113–$159 range; lose it and the C+(B−A) bearish projection at $111.45 comes into reach, with the cycle B low at $113.30 (6/9) the line that decides higher-low vs new leg lower. Above $157.24 invalidates the double-top and re-engages the April cycle high $159.09.

Technical structure. FORM rallied from $42.42 (10/28) to $159.09 (4/24) — a +275% multi-month impulse, the basket's only true "trend" name. The post-A pullback printed B at $113.30 on 6/9 (−29% retrace), then rallied to retest the high at $157.24 on 6/22 (C-wave). The 6/22 high was rejected on widening intra-day range and Friday's full-bar engulf below the 6/15 pivot at $152.90 confirms the lower-high structure. The descending speed line off A passes ~$135 next week, intersecting with the round $130 / session-low $129.03 shelf as the first defense; the rising weekly trendline off the October base intersects ~$120. The double-top measured move (high − pullback = $159.09 − $113.30 = $45.79; subtract from breakdown level $129.03) projects $83.24 in the bear case, but the more conservative C+(B−A) target is $111.45.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $796.0M (+6.7% YoY)
• Gross margin: 38.3%
• Operating income TTM: +$50.2M (profitable — only profitable name in the basket)
• Cash + ST investments: $306.2M (as of 2026-03-28)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$45.0M (positive)
• Runway: N/A — profitable
• Diluted shares: 78.0M
• Source: latest 10-Q via SEC EDGAR companyfacts

Valuation

• Market cap: $130.74 × 78.0M = $10.20B
• P/Sales TTM: 12.8×
• EV/Sales: ~12.4× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S (6-ticker quantum basket): ~340×
• Position vs peers: far below the median — FORM is the only profitable name in the basket and trades on real fundamentals; the multiple reflects semiconductor probe-card cyclicality with a quantum option, not a pure-play quantum re-rate.

Catalysts

• Next earnings: ~July 29, 2026 (Q2) — source FormFactor earnings (MarketBeat)
• Recent: Q1 2026 record revenue $226.1M (+32% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $0.56 vs $0.43 expected; Q2 guide $240M ±$5M — source FormFactor Q1 2026 8-K
• Industry: AI/HBM probe-card demand offsets legacy cryogenic systems weakness — Systems revenue −19.9% segment-on-segment; quantum lab demand remains a secondary tailwind — source Investing.com Q1 slides

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.