FORM closed the July 17 session at $105.57 — a −1.4% down day inside a wide range of $97.28–$107.99. The stock has pulled back −34.1% from the June 30 cycle high of $160.27, which is a genuinely violent unwind — but it's a healthy correction inside a longer bull structure, not a broken pattern like the pure-plays.

Line in the sand

FORM's setup is different from the rest of the basket — it's a profitable mid-cap with real customers, not a story stock. Bulls need to hold today's $97.28 session low and reclaim $117.52 (the 7/10 close) to argue the correction is finished. Bearish below $97.28, bullish above $117.52. A weekly close under $97.28 opens the door to the $91.41 pullback low from 3/30/26 — the last major structural low, and a level that would represent a ~55% retracement of the 11-month rally.

Technical structure

FORM's cycle from the 7/31/25 gap-down base at A = $28.41 to the B = $160.27 cycle high on 6/30/26 was a ~5.6× move in eleven months — one of the cleanest picks-and-shovels quantum trades in the market. That parabola completed with a topping wick on 6/30/26 (open $145, high $160.27, close $159.93 on 1.87M shares) and the tape has been unwinding hard ever since: 7/01 close $147.13, 7/02 close $123.59 (an $-24 down day on 2.1M shares — the deceleration bar), 7/07 close $106.05 (bottom fishing), 7/17 close $105.57.

This is a classic A→B→C bull structure with C = $97.28 printing as today's D-wave-equivalent low. The 47.8% retracement of the AB leg lands right at the $91.41 pullback low from 3/30/26 — the last major swing low before the April blow-off. That level plus the $97-105 zone define the composite floor of this pullback.

If C = $97.28 holds and price grinds higher, the wave projection C+1.0×(B-A) = 97.28 + (160.27 − 28.41) = $229.14 — the theoretical next-leg upside target. That's ambitious, but this is the only ticker in the basket where the wave projection formula points UP rather than down, because it's the only ticker in a bull structure.

The 2/3 Edson Gould speed line drawn from the A base through the B top sits near $118 next week — that's the level bulls need to reclaim on a weekly close to argue the trend has resumed.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $796.0M (+6.7% YoY) — the largest and most stable revenue base in the basket
• Gross margin: 38.3%
• Operating income TTM: +$50.2M — PROFITABLE (the only name in the basket that is)
• Cash + ST investments: $306.2M (as of 2026-03-28)
• Quarterly cash from operations: +$45.0M — positive free cash flow
• Runway: n/a — company is self-funding
• Diluted shares: 77.95M
• Source: latest 10-Q for the period ending 2026-03-28 (accession 0001039399-26-000023)

Q1 2026 revenue rose 32% YoY to $226.1M (accelerating from the 6.7% TTM average as HBM/AI-driven DRAM and logic probe card demand surged). Net income tripled to $20.4M.

Valuation

• Market cap: $105.57 × 77.95M = $8.23B
• Enterprise value (cash-adjusted): ~$7.92B
• P/Sales TTM: ~10.3×
• EV/Sales TTM: ~9.96×
• P/E TTM: ~40× (using ~$0.66/share TTM GAAP EPS from 10-Q data)
• Peer position: the only reasonable multiple in the basket — 10× sales for a profitable, accelerating semiconductor test-equipment leader with a quantum tailwind (cryogenic dilution refrigerators + 4K probe stations) is not stretched. The comps are ATE peers (Teradyne, ONTO Innovation, ASML Holding) at similar multiples.

Catalysts

• Q1 2026 (5/06/26): revenue $226.1M (+32% YoY), net income $20.4M (+3×), driven by HBM/AI DRAM & logic probe card demand — source SEC 8-K
• Q2 2026 guidance issued: revenue $240M ±$5M; non-GAAP EPS $0.61 ±$0.04
• Q2 2026 earnings release expected first week of August 2026 (historical cadence)
• 3/11/26: introduced the Flatiron™ Dilution Refrigerator for benchtop millikelvin quantum hardware validation — direct product for QC lab test infrastructure
• HPD IQ3000 probe station operating at 4 K is FORM's flagship product for QC device characterization

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.