FormFactor closed Friday at $114.16, down $1.55 (−1.3%) on 735K shares — the only ticker in the quantum basket that finished red for the week, with a wide-range bar that opened at $117.69, kissed $117.80 and then flushed to $110.32 before a modest late close. The line in the sand is $139.80 (the 8/17 D-swing high); the tape has to reclaim that print to re-open the $160 cycle high. Below $110.32 (Friday's session low) the correction reasserts and the $97-100 gap zone becomes the next test.

Technical structure

FORM is the picks-and-shovels play in the basket — a mid-cap semiconductor cap-eq name whose cryogenic probe stations are used across the quantum-computing R&D community. The weekly frame captures the extraordinary run: A base at $27.00 (8/21/25) → cycle blow-off $160.27 (6/30/26, wave B, annual containment) — a 494% eight-month run. The subsequent correction bottomed at $83.45 on 7/29/26 (wave C, −48% peak-to-trough) and rebounded to $139.80 on 8/17 (wave D). The C+B-A projection lands at a stretch $216.72 — technically valid but requires the entire base-to-peak leg to replay off C.

Daily frame: the July flush from $160 → $83 was a proper capitulation flush with the 7/28 gap-down and 7/29 close at $83.45 the low print. The August bounce has been vigorous ($83.45 → $139.80 in three weeks) but Friday's outside bar with distribution volume flags fatigue near $140. The B-C measured move projected off D lands at $216.27 — same rough zone as the weekly. The 3/06 → 6/30 speed line runs through the mid-$130s and is now the "trend line" price is retesting from above/below.

Cary would flag: (1) Friday's wide-range outside bar closing below the mid-range is a distribution signature — needs Monday follow-through to confirm, (2) $110.32 aligns with the mid-August pivot base — a break opens the July gap zone toward $105, (3) the $139-140 zone is the critical test for whether the D-leg can extend or fails at prior distribution.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $882.9M (+18.4% YoY)
• Gross margin: 42.1%
• Operating income TTM: +$104.8M (profitable — the only positive-op-income name in the basket)
• Cash + ST investments: $349.0M (as of 2026-06-27)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$106.8M (positive, robust)
• Runway: N/A — company is cash-generative
• Diluted shares outstanding: 78.1M
• Source: latest 10-Q filed for period ended 6/27/26 (accession 0001039399-26-000033)

FORM is the fundamentals outlier of the basket by a country mile — mature revenue base ($883M TTM), positive operating margins, positive free cash flow, and no dilution risk. Growth is high-teens versus the pure-plays' triple-digit prints, but delivered on real customer bookings from the semiconductor + memory + quantum-R&D ecosystem. This is the "buy the shovel, not the miner" trade.

Valuation

• Market cap: $114.16 × 78.1M = $8.92B
• P/Sales TTM: $8.92B / $882.9M = 10.1×
• EV/Sales: ($8.92B − $349M) / $882.9M ≈ 9.7×
• Peer median P/S (6-ticker basket, ex-INFQ): ~449×
• Position vs peers: dramatically cheaper than the pure-play median — trades at a real-earnings multiple (roughly 30× forward EPS) versus the pre-revenue moonshots. The quantum-related premium is real but bounded by the semiconductor-cap-eq comp set (KLAC, ONTO)

Catalysts

• Next earnings: ~late October 2026 (Q3'26 print)
• Recent: Q2 2026 reported end of July, beat on both revenue and margin; DRAM probe card demand was the standout — see FormFactor investor relations
• Industry: Growth in high-bandwidth memory (HBM3E → HBM4) probe demand continues driving revenue upside; separately, expansion of cryogenic-probe deployments at government + academic quantum labs remains a slow-burn tailwind

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.