Line in the sand

FORM closed Friday at $139.21 after a powerful Friday rally — open $132.40, high $140.75, +6.9% on the session. The structure is constructive above $113.30 (6/09 pullback low — the C-wave reference). Bulls need to reclaim $146.18 (4/22 high) for the cycle structure to extend toward the $159.09 B-wave high. Lose $113.30 cleanly and the next demand pocket is $86.67 (3/05 swing low), with $26.08 (7/31/25 earnings gap-down) as the structural multi-year floor.

Technical structure

FORM is the picks-and-shovels member of the basket — cryogenic test for quantum labs — and the chart shows a re-rating arc rather than a clean quantum pure-play wave structure. The cycle: A=$26.08 (7/31/25 post-earnings gap-down low), powerful uptrend through Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 to B=$159.09 (4/24/26 intraday high — a roughly 6.1x re-rate in nine months). The C-wave pulled back to $113.30 (6/09/26 intraday low), a ~29% drawdown of the B-high.

The measured-move target C+0.618×(B−A) = $195.49 is the structural symmetry target if the C/D speed line holds; the full 1.0 extension at $246.31 sits well above current spot and would require multi-quarter trend resumption to engage. The bigger uptrend channel from 8/01/25 to 4/24/26 had its first major test at $113.30 — the bounce to Friday's $139.21 needs follow-through to confirm the channel.

Volume confirms the rally character: 2/05-2/06 took price from $77 to $90 on 3.8M and 2.3M shares (vs. ~1M average), and 4/13 broke out on 4.2M to $135. The 4/30 distribution day at 4.6M ran a $146 to $129 intraday range and warned of the impending B-top. Friday's $139.21 close came on just 1.2M shares — light volume on a 6.9% gain raises questions about follow-through; bulls need to see >2M-share confirmation early next week.

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $796.0M (+6.7% YoY)
• Gross margin: 38.3%
• Operating income TTM: +$50.2M (PROFITABLE — only name in basket with positive op income)
• Cash + ST investments: $306.2M (as of 2026-03-28)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$45.0M (positive cash flow)
• Runway: N/A (cash flow positive — does not require external capital)
• Diluted shares: 78.0M
• Source: latest 10-Q filed for period ending 2026-03-28

Valuation

• Market cap: $139.21 × 78.0M = $10.85B
• P/Sales TTM: 13.6×
• EV/Sales: ~13.2× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S: dramatically below quantum pure-play peer median (IONQ ~163×, QBTS ~350×, RGTI ~725×, QUBT ~3,283×) — FORM trades on actual semi-test fundamentals plus a quantum-test narrative premium
• Position vs peers: only profitable, cash-flow-positive name in the basket; valuation is in semi-cap-equipment territory rather than venture-narrative territory; the upside thesis depends on cryogenic test attach rate to quantum-lab investment cycle

Catalysts

• Next earnings: Q2 2026 results expected late July 2026 (FormFactor's typical reporting cadence is ~5 weeks after quarter-end on a 13-week fiscal calendar)
• Recent: 10-Q for period ending 2026-03-28 filed via SEC EDGAR — source SEC filings index
• Industry events: cryogenic test demand is correlated with quantum-lab capex from IONQ, QBTS, RGTI and national-lab procurement; semi-test cycle dynamics (Intel, TSMC, Samsung wafer-test demand) provide independent tailwinds

Key Level Map

Not financial advice. Analysis only.