FORM $116.70 — bullish above $120, bearish below $115.12

Line in the sand

FORM lost 7.8% Friday and printed a 115.12 session low — closing 1.58 above it. The 115.12 low ties tightly with Wednesday's 113.80 swing (Jun 1 low), creating a 113.80–115.12 support shelf. Above 120 reclaims the C(113.80)→62% retrace zone and re-opens 126.605 (prev close) and the 129.77 Thursday high. Below 113.80 breaks the shelf, with next support at 100.00 (round-number psychological) and the 91.00 Mar 30 swing low.

Technical structure

FORM is the picks-and-shovels play in this basket — not a pure-play quantum company but the leading supplier of cryogenic probe-card infrastructure that quantum labs need to test qubit systems. The chart reflects that: it's been driven by AI/HBM probe demand more than quantum, but the quantum tailwind is now an explicit revenue category.

Weekly structure: A at 26.08 (Jul 31 2025 ER gap-down low, which proved to be the cycle bottom), B at 159.09 (Apr 24 2026 cycle high), with the rally producing a 510% gain in nine months. The current C-leg low printed at 113.80 (Jun 1) — a 28.5% correction from B, which is healthy and within historical norms for fast-mover semis. Speed line from A through B is still intact above ~$95.

On daily, the May 11 high at 157.63 was the secondary rally attempt that failed below B. The pattern since has been a descending wedge with declining volume into Friday — supportive of a possible C-wave bottom around 113.80 if 115.12 holds Monday. The 38.2% retrace of A→B sits at $108.30; the 50% at $92.59; the 61.8% at $76.87. A 115.12 break opens the 108-110 zone fast.

ABCD projection: C+0.618×(B−A) targets $196.00 — practical resistance/upside roadmap, conditional on a higher low above 113.80 and a reclaim of 137.21 (Apr 17 pivot).

Fundamentals

• Revenue TTM: $796.0M (+6.7% YoY)
• Gross margin: 38.3%
• Operating income TTM: +$50.2M (PROFITABLE)
• Cash + ST investments: $306.2M (as of 2026-03-28)
• Quarterly cash from ops: +$45.0M (positive)
• Diluted shares: 78.0M
• Source: 10-Q filed Q1 2026 (accession 0001039399-26-000023)

FORM is the only profitable name in the basket. Real revenue scale, real margin, real cash generation. The quantum exposure is a high-margin growth vector layered on a healthy AI-memory probe-card core business.

Valuation

• Market cap: $116.70 × 78.0M = $9.10B
• P/Sales TTM: 11.4×
• EV/Sales: ~11.1× (cash-adjusted)
• Peer median P/S (pure-play basket IONQ/RGTI/QBTS): ~357×
• Position vs peers: 30× cheaper on P/S than pure-plays — because FORM is a profitable semi-cap, not a pure quantum bet; comparable multiples are AEHR, FN, COHU — semi-test peer median ~6–9× — FORM trades at a quantum/HBM premium

Catalysts

• Next earnings: ~early Aug 2026 (Q2)
• Recent (Apr 2026): Q1 2026 record revenue $226.1M (+32% YoY); net income tripled to $20.4M; record DRAM revenue led by HBM applications, sustained non-HBM strength, Foundry & Logic growth from networking — source SEC 8-K
• Cryogenic infrastructure for quantum computing flagged as a growing revenue line — source Simply Wall St
• Strong Q2 guidance flagged; multi-year narrative projects $1.1B revenue / $202M earnings by 2029 — source Stocktitan

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Not financial advice. Analysis only.