CPER Metals Research — October 18, 2026
CPER $39.50 — bullish above $41.52, bearish below $38.06
CPER $39.50 — bullish above $41.52, bearish below $38.06
Line in the sand
Copper has been the strongest of the metals complex. CPER is consolidating beneath the Sep 22 cycle high of $41.52, and the Sep 14 low of $38.06 is the support that defines the consolidation. A close above $41.52 opens the C+61.8%(B–A) projection at $44.89; a close below $38.06 means the post-September advance has failed.
How the analysis was built
Where gold and silver spent the year making lower highs, CPER made higher ones. The A-wave low is Mar 20 at $32.31, followed by a climb through the Apr 22 high ($37.66) and May 13 high ($40.78) to the Sep 22 B-wave high of $41.52 — above both the May 13 high and the Jan 29 spike high of $40.44. The Jan 29 spike itself closed at $38.71 and reversed to $36.43 the next day, so the Sep 22 breakout is the first sustained trade above that level.
Since B the pullback has produced a C-wave low of $39.20 on Oct 15 (Oct 14 closed at $39.66 after a $40.32 high). The measured move from A to B is $41.52 − $32.31 = $9.21; projecting 61.8% of that from the C low gives $39.20 + $5.69 = $44.89. That target only becomes live above $41.52.
CPER's constructive structure contrasts with the miners: FCX has the same A-low date (Mar 20) but has been churning in a narrower range. Copper is acting as the global-cycle bellwether holding up better than the precious-metals complex.
Key Level Map
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| $44.89 | Wave projection C+61.8%(B–A) | Measured-move target if $41.52 clears |
| $41.52 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | Sep 22 B-wave cycle high — breakout line |
| $40.78 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | May 13 high — prior resistance |
| $39.89 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Oct 16 high |
| $39.20 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | Oct 15 C-wave low |
| $38.06 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Sep 14 low — bear trigger |
| $32.31 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | Mar 20 A-wave low — cycle anchor |
Not financial advice. Analysis only.
Charts
