CPER Metals Research — August 16, 2026
CPER $40.01 — bullish above $37.52, bearish below $32.31
CPER $40.01 — bullish above $37.52, bearish below $32.31
Line in the sand: CPER closed at $40.01 (Tradier quote: open $39.92, high $40.1576, low $39.91, prior close $39.85). The July 17, 2026 higher-low at $37.52 is the shelf that's held on every dip since the spring correction. The bigger structural floor is the March 20, 2026 correction low at $32.305 — copper's uptrend stays intact as long as that base holds on a weekly closing basis.
How the analysis was built
Unlike gold and silver's boom-bust cycle this year, copper's move has been a steadier, grinding advance — consistent with its role as a global-growth barometer rather than a monetary-policy trade. CPER bottomed at $27.37 on August 27, 2025 (A) and climbed in a fairly orderly channel to $40.44 by January 29, 2026 (B), a $13.07 advance. Rather than round-tripping the whole move like the metals did, copper only gave back roughly a third of it, correcting to $32.305 by March 20, 2026 (C) before resuming the uptrend and pushing to a new cycle high of $40.965 on August 5, 2026 (D) — actually exceeding the January peak.
The daily structure inside that continuation shows the same pattern at smaller scale: CPER topped locally at $37.17 on February 27 (A), corrected sharply to the $32.305 cycle low on March 20 (B), then rallied hard to a fresh high of $40.78 by May 13 (C) — already clearing the prior high — before pulling back to $36.12 on June 24 (D) and grinding higher again into the current test of the $40.965 August high.
The weekly C+100%(B-A) measured-move projection — using the full A-B impulse added to the March correction low — sits at $45.38, the next objective if copper can clear the current $40.44/$40.965 resistance cluster. The tactical D+61.8%(C-D) target off the June low, at $39.00, has already been cleared, confirming the uptrend's momentum is intact. With price now consolidating just under the cycle high, a decisive close above $40.965 opens the door toward that $45.38 extension; failure to hold $37.52 would point back toward the $32.305 base.
Key Level Map
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| $45.38 | Wave projection C+100%(B–A) | Next primary upside target |
| $40.965 | Intra-day containment (★★) | August 5, 2026 cycle high — immediate resistance |
| $40.44 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | January 29, 2026 prior high |
| $39.00 | Wave projection D+61.8%(C–D) | Tactical target — already achieved |
| $37.17 | Weekly containment (★★★) | February 27, 2026 high |
| $37.52 | Weekly containment (★★★) | July 17, 2026 higher low — line in the sand |
| $32.305 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | March 20, 2026 correction low — structural base |
| $27.37 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | A-wave cycle low — August 27, 2025 anchor |
Not financial advice. Analysis only.
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