CPER Metals Research — September 27, 2026
CPER $40.61 — bullish above $41.52, bearish below $39.04
CPER $40.61 — bullish above $41.52, bearish below $39.04
Line in the Sand
CPER closed Friday at $40.61 (day range $40.325–$40.695, per the Tradier quote), consolidating just under the September 22 high of $41.52 — the highest print of the entire trailing year and the level that needs to clear to confirm trend continuation. A close below the September 10 pivot low of $39.04 would suggest the current leg is stalling, with the June 24 swing low of $36.12 as the next real support. As long as CPER holds above that June low, the primary structure remains constructively bullish.
How the Analysis Was Built
Unlike the precious-metals complex, copper's trailing-year structure has been a grind higher rather than a blow-off-and-crash. CPER built a base in the high-$20s/low-$30s through the fall of 2025, spiked briefly to $40.44 on January 29, 2026 (alongside the broader metals complex), then gave back most of that spike and spent the next seven weeks consolidating in the mid-$30s. The real correction low came on March 20, 2026 at $32.305 (close $32.35) — the A-wave anchor on both charts.
From that low, CPER rallied steadily to a swing high of $40.78 on May 13, 2026 (close $40.27) — the B-wave high. A pullback into June found support at $36.12 on June 24, 2026 (close $36.31) — the C-wave low — before the uptrend resumed. That resumption has since carried price to a new cycle high of $41.52 on September 22, 2026 (close $41.43), which is the D-wave point and the highest level CPER has traded in the past year.
Measuring the A-to-B advance ($8.475) forward from the D-wave high produces two continuation targets: a 61.8% extension at $46.76, and a full measured-move target at $50.00 if the uptrend maintains its current character. The red 1/3 speed line drawn from the March 2026 correction low to the September high remains well below current price, consistent with an intact uptrend rather than a topping structure. Copper's steady grind to new cycle highs — in contrast to gold, silver, and the miners still working off their January blow-off tops — reflects its role as a global-growth/industrial-demand bellwether rather than a monetary hedge, and FCX's own structure (see that ticker's writeup) echoes this same resilience.
Key Level Map
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| $50.00 | Wave projection D+(B-A) | Primary continuation target |
| $46.76 | Wave projection D+61.8%(B-A) | Secondary continuation target |
| $41.52 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | Sep 22, 2026 high — D-wave, cycle high |
| $40.78 | Weekly containment (★★★) | May 13, 2026 high — B-wave pivot |
| $39.04 | Intra-day containment (★★) | Sep 10, 2026 pivot low |
| $36.12 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Jun 24, 2026 low — C-wave |
| $32.31 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | Mar 20, 2026 low — A-wave cycle anchor |
Not financial advice. Analysis only.
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