CPER Metals Research — May 31, 2026
CPER $38.86 — E-target $39.31 tagged May 13; consolidating beneath D-wave high $40.44
CPER closed the week at $38.86, consolidating beneath the D-wave cycle high at $40.44 after the E-wave projection at $39.31 was effectively tagged on May 13 (intraweek high $40.78). The United States Copper Index Fund has navigated a complex ABCD structure driven by copper's 2025 breakout, and is now in post-E consolidation.
ABCD Measured-Move Structure
CPER's ABCD cycle reflected the dramatic volatility in copper futures during summer 2025:
- A — $29.69 (Jun 13 2025): Cycle low, copper correction bottom
- B — $36.69 (Jul 23 2025): B-wave high, 23.6% advance in 6 weeks
- C — $27.08 (Jul 31 2025): C-wave low, extreme -26% single-week reversal — copper futures liquidation event
- D — $40.44 (Jan 29 2026): D-wave cycle high, 49% advance from C over 26 weeks
The C-wave was unusual in its ferocity — a near-vertical collapse from B-wave high to new cycle lows in a single week, consistent with forced copper futures liquidation. The subsequent D-wave recovery more than doubled the C-wave low, marking a clean resolution of the measured move.
Post-D correction found support at $32.305 (D-corr low), a -20% drawdown that held the multi-week structural zone before the recovery began.
E-Wave Projection
Using the measured-move formula E = D-correction-low + (B − A):
E = $32.305 + ($36.69 − $29.69) = $39.31
The E-target at $39.31 was reached — CPER printed an intraweek high of $40.78 on May 13, marginally exceeding the E-target before pulling back. At $38.86, CPER is holding just above the E-target, suggesting the measured objective has been met and the market is digesting.
★ Key Level Map
| Price | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| $40.44 | ★★★★★ Annual | D-wave cycle high — Jan 29 2026 |
| $40.78 | ★★★★ Multi-week | May 13 intraweek high — E overshoot |
| $39.31 | ★★★★ Multi-week | E = D-low + (B−A) — met |
| $38.86 | — | Current price |
| $36.69 | ★★★ Weekly | B-wave high — Jul 23 2025 |
| $32.305 | ★★★★★ Annual | D-correction anchor |
| $27.08 | ★★★★ Multi-week | C-wave low — Jul 31 2025 |
| $29.69 | ★★★★★ Annual | A-wave low — Jun 13 2025 |
Outlook
With the E-target tagged, CPER enters a more neutral posture. The bullish case requires holding above $36.69 (B-wave high) on any pullbacks, maintaining the structure for a potential extension above $40.44. A break back below $36.69 signals a deeper retracement toward the $32.305 D-corr anchor. Near-term, the $38–$40.44 range defines the key decision zone — acceptance above $40.44 on a weekly close would be the next bull trigger.
Charts
