CPER Metals Research — July 19, 2026
CPER $37.92 — bullish above $38.95, bearish below $36.12
CPER $37.92 — bullish above $38.95, bearish below $36.12
Line in the sand. CPER closed at $37.92 on July 17, down $0.14 (-0.37%) on the day (open $37.53, high $37.995, low $37.52, prior close $38.06). Unlike the precious-metals complex, copper hasn't broken structurally — price is consolidating between the June 24 swing low of $36.12 and the July 14 swing high of $38.95. Hold $36.12 and CPER stays in a constructive range below the May cycle high; lose it and the next real support isn't until $35.55, the 38.2% retracement of the entire prior rally.
How the analysis was built
CPER's chart carries one outlier event worth flagging directly: on July 30, 2025, the fund gapped violently, printing an intraday low of $28.19 and closing at $28.24 after opening at $34.71 — a roughly 19% single-session collapse, almost certainly tied to the copper-tariff-driven dislocation between COMEX and LME pricing that year. The very next session (July 31) based at a $27.08 low and $27.45 close, and that level is treated as the cycle low (A-wave) for this analysis rather than the pre-gap prices, since it's the base the entire subsequent rally builds from.
From that $27.08 low, CPER climbed in a much steadier, lower-amplitude fashion than gold, silver, or the miners — no parabolic blow-off, just a grinding uptrend into a cycle high of $40.78 on May 13, 2026 (that session's open was $40.46, close $40.27). The $27.08-to-$40.78 advance (the A-to-B leg, a $13.70 range) anchors the levels below.
Since the May 13 top, the pullback has been comparatively shallow: a high-to-low sequence of $40.78 (May 13) → $39.695 (Jun 15, a lower high after a brief bounce) → $38.95 (Jul 14, the most recent lower high), against lows of $38.11 (May 15) → $37.715 (Jun 10) → $36.12 (Jun 24, the deepest print of the correction). Measured against the full A-B rally, the $36.12 low represents only about a 34% retracement — well short of even the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $35.55, and a much shallower unwind than the 60-70%+ retracements seen across GLD, SLV, GDX, and GDXJ. That relative resilience fits copper's role as a global-growth cyclical rather than a safe-haven asset — it didn't participate in the same speculative mania or subsequent unwind. The tight channel bounding the May 13/Jun 15 highs and the Jun 10/Jun 24 lows captures the current consolidation range price has traded in since.
Key Level Map
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| $40.78 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | Cycle high — May 13 2026 top (B-wave) |
| $39.695 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | Jun 15 2026 lower high — channel top rail |
| $38.95 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Jul 14 2026 swing high — bias flips bullish above |
| $37.72 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Jun 10 2026 swing low — recent pivot |
| $36.12 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Jun 24 2026 swing low — line in the sand |
| $35.55 | Wave projection 38.2%(B-A) | Next downside target if $36.12 fails |
| $27.08 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | Cycle low — Jul 31 2025, day after the tariff-driven gap crash (A-wave anchor) |
Not financial advice. Analysis only.
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