CPER Metals Research — September 13, 2026
CPER $39.18 — bullish above $38.94, bearish below $37.72
CPER $39.18 — bullish above $38.94 weekly support, bearish below $37.72 correction low.
Line in the sand
CPER closed at $39.18 (+$0.14, +0.36%) Friday, pulling back from a fresh 12-month high of $41.29 set September 9. The line in the sand is the $38.935 low from September 10 — the deepest print of this pullback — with the June 10 correction low at $37.715 as the next line of defense below that. Above the market, $41.29 is the level to reclaim to confirm the breakout is resuming rather than failing.
How the analysis was built
Copper has traced a fundamentally different path than the precious-metals complex over the past year — no parabolic blow-off, no crash, just a steady grind higher punctuated by one sharp tariff-driven selloff. CPER bottomed the cycle at $28.20 on September 18, 2025, then climbed through year-end into a January 29, 2026 high of $40.44 (a session that also produced spikes across the metals complex). A subsequent correction, triggered by the same tariff-policy shock that hit FCX and the miners in mid-March, took CPER down to $32.305 by March 20 — the deepest pullback of the year and the base of the broader advance.
From that March low, copper resumed its uptrend, and the more immediately relevant swing for current positioning starts at the June 10 low of $37.715 (the "A" wave), rallying to the fresh cycle high of $41.29 on September 9 (the "B" wave) before the current pullback to $38.935 on September 10 (the "C" wave). That sequence projects to C + (B − A) = $38.935 + ($41.29 − $37.715) = $42.51 as the next primary target, with the 61.8% retracement level at $41.14 sitting just below the September high — effectively confirming $41.29 as the immediate resistance to clear.
Unlike gold, silver, and the miners — all of which remain well below their January/February spike highs — copper is now trading at new 12-month highs. That divergence matters: it suggests the copper move is being driven by a genuine industrial-demand and supply narrative rather than the same safe-haven, parabolic dynamics that produced and then unwound the precious-metals spike. The long-horizon channel — bottom edge running from the September 2025 low through the March 2026 low, top edge from the January high through the current September high — remains intact and roughly flat-to-ascending, framing this as a structurally healthy uptrend rather than a blow-off in progress.
Key Level Map
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| $42.51 | Wave projection C+(B-A) | Next primary target |
| $41.29 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | Sep 9 2026 fresh cycle high — B-wave pivot |
| $41.14 | Wave projection C+61.8%(B-A) | Confirms $41.29 as resistance |
| $40.00 | Intra-day containment (★★) | Round-number pivot |
| $38.94 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Sep 10 pullback low — current C-wave anchor |
| $37.72 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | Jun 10 correction low — A-wave anchor |
| $32.31 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | Mar 20 2026 tariff-selloff low |
| $28.20 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | Sep 2025 cycle low |
Not financial advice. Analysis only.
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