CPER Metals Research — June 22, 2026
CPER $38.86 — copper ETF sitting at exact 38.2% recovery target $38.89 after Jun 10 low $37.72; textbook inflection zone
Weekly Structure — ABCD Cycle
CPER's primary ABCD cycle launched from the Jul 31, 2025 crash low at A = $27.08, bounced to the Jan 29 spike high at B = $40.44, pulled back to the Mar 20 corrective trough at C = $32.31, and completed a secondary cycle peak at D = $40.78 (May 13, 2026). Notably, the D-wave slightly exceeded the B-wave spike ($40.44), confirming a genuine new cycle high rather than a failed re-test.
Edson Gould speed lines drawn from B ($40.44, Jan 29, 2026) to C ($32.31, Mar 20, 2026) frame the recovery and current consolidation zone, extended through Jun 18.
Weekly Fibonacci retracements of the D-wave advance ($27.08 → $40.78):
- 38.2% retrace: $35.55 — first major corrective target if $37.72 fails
- 50% retrace: $33.93 — aligns with the C-wave floor cluster
Daily Corrective ABCD
Following the Jan 29 spike, copper's short-term corrective structure unfolded as:
- A = $40.44 (Jan 29, 2026) — spike high, corrective anchor
- B = $32.31 (Mar 20, 2026) — C-wave major corrective low, 20% drawdown
- C = $40.78 (May 13, 2026) — D-wave cycle peak, new high above A
- D = $37.72 (Jun 10, 2026) — post-peak corrective low, secondary pullback
The D-wave held above the midpoint of the B-C advance, indicating healthy corrective structure rather than a trend reversal.
Recovery projections from D ($37.72) toward C ($40.78):
- 38.2% recovery: $38.89 — current price $38.86 is AT this level
- 50% recovery: $39.25 — next upside target if $38.89 is sustained
Current Position — Textbook Inflection
At $38.86 (Jun 18 close), CPER is trading within $0.03 of the 38.2% recovery target at $38.89. This is a high-precision inflection zone where bulls and bears are contesting direction. A daily close above $38.89 opens the path to $39.25 (50% recovery) and then a re-test of the $40.44–$40.78 D-wave zone. Failure here risks a re-test of $37.72 and ultimately the 38.2% weekly fib at $35.55.
The weekly structure remains constructive above $37.72, as the broader ABCD cycle concluded at a new high ($40.78 > $40.44).
Key Level Map
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| $40.78 | ★★★★★★ D-wave cycle peak | May 13 2026 — new cycle high |
| $40.44 | ★★★★★ Jan 29 spike high | B-wave blow-off — prior high |
| $39.25 | ★★★★ 50% recovery D→C | Secondary upside target |
| $38.89 | ★★★★ 38.2% recovery D→C | Inflection zone — current test |
| $38.86 | ★★★★ Current price (Jun 18) | AT 38.2% target — decision |
| $37.72 | ★★★★★★ Jun 10 corrective low | D-wave floor — bull/bear line |
| $36.69 | ★★★★ Jul 23 2025 pre-crash high | Prior resistance cluster |
| $35.55 | ★★★ 38.2% retrace D-peak (D-A) | Weekly corrective target |
| $33.93 | ★★★ 50% retrace D-peak (D-A) | Deeper corrective target |
| $32.31 | ★★★★★★ Mar 20 C-wave low | B-wave major floor |
| $27.08 | ★★★★★★ A-wave crash low | Jul 31 2025 — cycle origin |
Charts
