CPER Metals Research — July 12, 2026
CPER $37.99 — bullish above $37.75, bearish below $36.12
CPER $37.99 — bullish above $37.75, bearish below $36.12
Line in the Sand
CPER is holding the middle of a well-defined range: the annual cycle low at $27.08 (Jul 31, 2025 — the single-session flash decline low) anchors the bottom of a 12-month uptrend, while the annual cycle high at $40.78 (May 13, 2026) caps it from above. Working down from current price, the next resistance rungs are $39.82 (Jun 16 multi-week swing high) and $38.04 (this week's session high). Support directly below spot sits at $37.75 (prior close / the congestion shelf CPER has closed into repeatedly since late June), then $36.12 (the Jun 24 swing low), and a deeper weekly shelf at $34.64 (Feb 17 low). As long as $37.75 holds on a closing basis the tape stays constructive; a close back below $36.12 opens the door to a retest of the $34.64 shelf.
How the Analysis Was Built
The cycle anchors come straight off the fetched bars: the 252-day daily window shows a violent single-session flash decline on 2025-07-30/07-31 (open $34.71, intraday low $28.19, next-day low $27.08, close $27.45 on 2.4M+ volume) that carved the cycle low. From there CPER rebuilt in a textbook persistent uptrend — the kind of long, low-volatility grind copper is known for relative to the precious metals — closing higher in 8 of the next 10 months before topping at $40.78 on 2026-05-13 (high $40.78, close $40.27), the cycle high (B).
Wave labels: A = $27.08 (2025-07-31, cycle low), B = $40.78 (2026-05-13, cycle high), C = $36.12 (2026-06-24, the most recent significant swing low after CPER corrected roughly 11% off the May top). That correction low on 06-24 is the anchor the current $37.75-$38.04 base is being built off of, and it's the level that needs to hold for the uptrend to stay intact.
Channel structure supports the wave read: drawing the bottom rail through the A-wave low (2025-07-31, $27.08) and the higher low struck during the March pullback (2026-03-20, $32.305), and the top rail through the early-trend high (2025-09-24, $29.85) and the B-wave high (2026-05-13, $40.78), produces a clean ascending channel that contained essentially the entire 12-month advance — price is currently sitting just above the channel's mid-line after the C-wave pullback, consistent with a pause/reload rather than a trend break. A 1/3-2/3 speed line run from the A low to the B high also brackets the June-July consolidation, reinforcing $36-38 as the zone that matters next.
The wave projection multiplies the A-to-B advance by the standard 61.8% retracement extension and adds it back from C: C + 0.618×(B−A) = 36.12 + 0.618×(40.78−27.08) = 36.12 + 8.47 = $44.59. That's the next primary upside target if CPER clears $40.78 and resumes the dominant trend — a level that sits well above the current range and should be treated as a multi-month objective, not a near-term one.
Key Level Map
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| $44.59 | Wave projection C+61.8%(B-A) | Next primary target — measured move off the C-wave low |
| $40.78 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | Cycle high (May 13, 2026) — breakout/resistance line |
| $39.82 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | Jun 16 swing high — last cap before the June breakdown |
| $38.04 | Session containment (★) | This week's high (Jul 9-10) — immediate resistance |
| $37.75 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Prior close / congestion shelf — near-term pivot |
| $36.12 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | Jun 24 swing low — C-wave anchor, key support |
| $34.64 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Feb 17 swing low — deeper support shelf |
| $27.08 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | Cycle low (Jul 31, 2025) — A-wave anchor |
Not financial advice. Analysis only.
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