CPER Metals Research — July 5, 2026
CPER $37.29 — bullish above $39.82, bearish below $36.12
Line in the sand: CPER closed at $37.29, up 0.22% on the session (prev close $37.21, today's range $37.12–$37.59). The key swing low anchoring the current structure is $36.12 (Jun 24, 2026), the most recent pullback low following a sharp two-week slide from the cycle high. The key swing high overhead is $39.82 (Jun 16, 2026), the top of that same slide. A reclaim of $39.82 opens the door back to the $40.78 (May 13, 2026) all-time high in this window; a loss of $36.12 exposes the $27.08 (Jul 31, 2025) base built after last summer's gap.
How the analysis was built: Copper's chart looks nothing like the precious-metals complex this cycle — instead of one January blow-off, CPER's defining event is a violent single-session break on Jul 30, 2025, when the fund gapped from a $36.29 high down to a $28.19 low and closed at $28.24 (a >20% one-day move, consistent with the well-documented COMEX-LME spread collapse around that date). Treating the post-gap low of $27.08 (Jul 31, 2025) as the A-wave anchor, CPER spent the rest of 2025 rebuilding, eventually pushing to new multi-quarter highs in 2026: a spike to $40.44 on Jan 29, then a higher high of $40.78 on May 13 — the current B-wave high, and notably higher than the January print. Applying the standard 61.8% extension off the A-to-B leg to the most recent swing low gives C+61.8%(B−A) = 36.12 + 0.618×(40.78−27.08) = $44.59, a longer-horizon target that would require a fresh push above the May high. Since the May 13 top, CPER cut a choppy but clear pullback: $39.82 (Jun 16 high) followed by $36.12 (Jun 24 low), the most recent test of support. On the daily chart, using A=$37.72 (Jun 10 low), B=$39.82 (Jun 16 high), C=$36.12 (Jun 24 low), the same 61.8% extension projects $37.42 as the near-term bounce target — essentially where CPER is trading right now.
Metals framing: Copper's structure has diverged sharply from gold/silver this cycle — no January mania, just a supply-shock gap followed by a grinding recovery to new highs in May, well after precious metals had already rolled over. That makes CPER's $36.12/$39.82 range the cleaner near-term battleground rather than a echo of the gold/silver wave count. FCX (copper + gold miner) is the natural cross-check for whether this range resolves higher or lower.
Key Level Map
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| $44.59 | Wave projection D=C+61.8%(B−A) | Long-horizon weekly upside target |
| $40.78 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | B-wave high — May 13, 2026 cycle high |
| $40.44 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | Jan 29, 2026 spike high |
| $39.82 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Jun 16, 2026 high — breakdown trigger |
| $37.72 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Jun 10, 2026 low — daily A-wave anchor |
| $37.42 | Wave projection D=C+61.8%(B−A) | Near-term daily bounce target |
| $36.12 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | Jun 24, 2026 low — C-wave low, cycle anchor |
| $27.08 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | A-wave low — Jul 31, 2025 post-gap base |
Not financial advice. Analysis only.
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