CPER Metals Research — August 9, 2026
CPER $39.90 — bullish above $38.77, bearish below $36.12
Line in the sand: CPER closed Friday at $39.90 (−$0.86, −2.11%, day range $39.875–$40.34), the only decliner among the nine names in this week's scan and a pullback from the $40.965 print set just two sessions earlier on August 5, 2026 — the highest close-to-high in the entire lookback window. The level that matters is $38.77, the July 27, 2026 pivot that marked the base of the latest breakout leg; holding above it keeps the year-long uptrend structurally intact. A close below $36.12 — the June 24, 2026 higher low — would be the first real crack in that structure and would open a retest of the broader $32.305 correction low from March.
How the analysis was built: Copper's dataset low sits at $27.521 on August 19, 2025 (wave A), and unlike gold, silver, and the miners, CPER never staged a violent multi-month reversal — it climbed in a persistent, higher-low uptrend for essentially the entire year. The advance produced a first major peak of $40.44 on January 29, 2026 (wave B, coinciding with the broad metals spike that day), followed by a corrective leg down to $32.305 on March 20, 2026 (wave C) — copper's version of the pullback that hit the other metals harder.
From that March low, CPER resumed the ascent inside a rising channel: the top rail runs from the January 29 high through the August 5, 2026 high ($40.965), while the bottom rail runs from the August 2025 cycle low through the June 24, 2026 higher low ($36.12). That August 5 print (wave D) took out the measured-move target derived from the A-B-C swing — C + 61.8%(B−A) = 32.305 + 0.618×(40.44−27.521) = $40.29 — by a small margin before Friday's pullback. Trading just under both the target and the new high leaves copper in a healthy consolidation rather than a breakdown, as long as $38.77 holds.
Key Level Map
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| $40.965 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | D-wave extension high — Aug 5, 2026, cycle high |
| $40.44 | Multi-week contain (★★★★) | B-wave high — Jan 29, 2026 |
| $40.29 | Wave projection C+61.8%(B-A) | Measured-move target, already tagged |
| $38.77 | Session containment (★) | Jul 27, 2026 pivot — line in the sand |
| $38.025 | Session containment (★) | Jul 29, 2026 low |
| $37.66 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Apr 22, 2026 pivot |
| $37.51 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Jan 14, 2026 pivot |
| $36.12 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Jun 24, 2026 higher low — bearish invalidation |
| $35.18 | Session containment (★) | Jan 22 / Feb 5, 2026 pivot |
| $32.305 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | C-wave correction low — Mar 20, 2026 |
| $30.013 | Weekly containment (★★★) | Oct 10, 2025 pivot |
| $27.521 | Annual containment (★★★★★) | A-wave cycle low — Aug 19, 2025 |
Not financial advice. Analysis only.
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