Sector Rotation Detector · Weekly Scan · Public preview

2 sectors are rotating · 9 stable

Scan day · Saturday, September 19, 2026

Two sectors flipped relative-strength sign vs the same calendar window a year ago, and only two: Consumer Discretionary turned decisively negative (-6.6pp RS swing) and Energy turned positive (+2.7pp). Nine sectors held their prior-year direction — mostly a tape of stable underperformance vs SPY given that seven of eleven groups closed the 30-day window in negative absolute return territory (SPY itself is -0.1%). The single most interesting datapoint is inside Energy: XLE, the mega-cap SPDR proxy, printed -$2.1B in 10-day net money flow while XOP (pure E&P upstream) took in +$876M. The rotation is real, but institutional capital is buying the sub-theme, not the diversified sector. Consumer Discretionary shows the opposite pattern — every one of the top five ETFs (XLY, VCR, FDIS, IYC, FXD) is bleeding, so this is broad de-risking of cyclicals rather than mix rotation. Communication Services and Technology remain the only sectors carrying positive RS in both windows.

Headline rotation — fully revealed

Consumer Discretionary

XLY

Turning negative ↘

RS · now-4.7%

RS · 1 yr ago+1.9%

Top ETF (by 10d flow)FXD

Thesis

Consumer Discretionary went from +1.9pp relative strength a year ago to -4.7pp today — the largest sign-flip in the tape. Every one of the top five sector ETFs printed net 10-day outflows, and the biggest was on XLY itself at -$5.6B. That signature — broad exit across the mega-cap primary and every liquid follower — reads as de-risking of cyclicals rather than a within-sector mix change. The likely driver is late-cycle stress: rising real yields squeezing multiples on high-beta consumer names, softening card-spend data, and mean reversion from a strong 2025 comparable when this sector led the tape. The 9/15-9/16 volume spike (XLY volume 12.7M and 8.9M vs a 5-6M baseline) coincided with the sharpest leg down — that is where the sell decisions clustered.

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Consumer Discretionary

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