Sector Rotation Detector · Weekly Scan · Public preview

2 sectors are rotating · 9 stable

Scan day · Saturday, September 5, 2026

Two of eleven S&P 500 sectors are rotating on this scan. Consumer Discretionary is the biggest surprise: XLY has flipped from a +2.9pp leader over SPY on the same calendar window in 2025 to a -2.9pp laggard now — a 5.8pp swing that reflects a consumer weakening quietly even as the index sits near highs. Technology is quietly rotating in the other direction, moving from a -2.4pp lag to a modest +0.8pp lead (3.2pp swing), with meaningful bid returning to semis over the last three sessions (SOXX +$12.1B, SMH +$7.5B in 10-day net money flow) despite both being negative on the 30-day. Energy is not a 'rotation' under the sign-flip rule but is the tape's dominant story: XLE ran +10.1% versus SPY +0.2% and has extended its lead by 9.1pp year-over-year — the market's actual leadership signal, hiding in plain sight in the stable_positive bucket. Defensives (XLP, XLU) have quietly improved their relative standing without flipping positive, and cyclicals ex-Energy (XLI, XLY, XLB, XLC) are broadly decaying.

Headline rotation — fully revealed

Consumer Discretionary

XLY

Turning negative ↘

RS · now-2.9%

RS · 1 yr ago+2.9%

Top ETF (by 10d flow)FXD

Thesis

Consumer Discretionary is the cleanest rotation on the tape this scan. A year ago the sector was outperforming SPY by nearly three percentage points on the same calendar window; today it's underperforming by nearly three — a 5.8pp swing that is hard to attribute to noise. Money flow confirms the story: XLY alone shed roughly $1.1B in net tape aggression over the last 10 trading days, and every liquid discretionary vehicle on the list posted negative flow. The macro read is a consumer under quiet stress — real disposable income growth has flattened, credit-card delinquencies are trending, and August retail data was soft. This rotation predates the headlines: if you were waiting for the 'consumer weakness' story to hit the front page, the tape already told you.

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Consumer Discretionary

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