8 sectors are rotating · 3 stable
Eight of eleven S&P 500 sectors are rotating in the last 30 calendar days versus the same window a year ago, and the pattern is textbook late-cycle. Capital is leaving Technology decisively (RS swing of ‑10.3pp, with Semiconductors bleeding hardest) while flowing into every rate-sensitive defensive: Real Estate, Utilities, and Staples all flipped from negative to positive relative strength. Energy is the widest swing in the universe at 16.3 percentage points, funded by the June oil rally and OPEC+ discipline. Financials broadened impressively — XLF alone absorbed $7B of net inflow over 10 days, with regional banks (KRE, +$1.6B) leading. The single most surprising number: SMH and SOXX combined show ~$29B of net 10-day outflow, larger than the inflow into the entire Financials complex on the way up. The trade that anchored the 2025 tape is no longer being fed. Health Care flipped positive at the sector level (+8.3% for XLV, mag 15.2pp), but the 10-day flow inside the sector says the rotation is intra-sector: XBI (biotech) is drawing money while XLV itself and IBB show heavy distribution.
Energy
XLEEnergy was the biggest laggard in the same window last year (SPY +5.4%, XLE -2.4%) — this year it's the biggest leader (+8.1% vs SPY -0.5%). WTI has firmed on renewed OPEC+ discipline and Middle East supply risk, and integrated names are back in earnings-beat mode after a two-year drought. Money is arriving in size: XLE alone shows +$8.9B net inflow over 10 days, and pure E&P via XOP took another $2.6B. This is fresh institutional allocation, not a short squeeze off oversold levels.