OliviaTrades Researchprivate
Sector Rotation Detector · Weekly Scan · Public preview

2 sectors are rotating · 9 stable

Scan day · Saturday, September 12, 2026

Two sectors decisively rotated this week, both in the same direction: Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Real Estate (XLRE) flipped from positive relative-strength vs SPY a year ago to negative RS now, with magnitudes of 4.77 and 2.50 percentage points respectively. Both had led the tape in the August–September 2025 window and are now conspicuously lagging as the broad market itself has turned lower (SPY −1.75% over the last 30 calendar days vs +1.94% in the same 2025 window). The single most notable read: Consumer Discretionary's swing is the largest of the eleven, and it registers in both the cap-weighted XLY and the equal-weighted VCR — this isn't a mega-cap idiosyncrasy but broad consumer softness. Technology (XLK) is nearly a third rotator — RS flipped from −0.98 to +0.12 — but the 1.11pp magnitude falls under the 2.0pp threshold and is flagged only as one to watch. Energy remains a persistent leader in both windows (RS +8.43 now / +1.51 prior); Industrials the persistent laggard (RS −5.48). Money flow across all 10 candidate ETFs in the two rotating sectors was net negative over the last 10 sessions — institutional selling is confirmatory of the tape rather than divergent from it.

Headline rotation — fully revealed

Consumer Discretionary

XLY
Turning negative ↘
RS · now-2.9%
RS · 1 yr ago+1.9%
Top ETF (by 10d flow)FXD
Thesis

Consumer Discretionary was leading the tape a year ago (+3.82%, RS +1.88 vs SPY) and has swung sharply to lagging (-4.64%, RS -2.89) as broad-market weakness lands hardest on cyclical spend. The move is broad, not idiosyncratic: cap-weighted XLY (-4.64%), equal-weighted-ish VCR (-4.64%), IYC (-5.03%) and thinly-traded FXD (-6.74%) are all off by comparable magnitudes, so this is not just AMZN or TSLA drag — it is a sector-wide re-rating. The 10-day money flow across all 5 flavors is net negative, and the ranking is 'least-worst': the smallest outflow (FXD at -$1M) is a liquidity artifact of a $0.4M/day fund. Watch upcoming retail bellwether prints — durable rotation confirms if those miss consensus.

10 more sectors on this scan · members-only
Locked— Sign up to reveal —
Locked— Sign up to reveal —
Locked— Sign up to reveal —
Locked— Sign up to reveal —
Locked— Sign up to reveal —
Locked— Sign up to reveal —
Locked— Sign up to reveal —
Locked— Sign up to reveal —
Locked— Sign up to reveal —
Locked— Sign up to reveal —

Previous scans